基于月环比折年率移动平均线-猪粮比组合指标判断猪周期拐点研究

Research on Judging Pig Cycle Inflection Point by Pig Grain Ratio Combination Indicators

在我国CPI的构成中,食品因素是影响我国CPI走势的重要因素,而食品因素中,猪肉价格又往往起带头作用,因而准确预判生猪价格的周期性拐点,对判断和预测我国CPI趋势有着极其重要的意义。通过对季节调整后我国生猪价格的月度环比折年率移动平均线-猪粮比组合指标与我国生猪价格时间序列的比较分析,发现我国生猪价格月度环比折年率12个月、24个月移动平均线与我国生猪价格的趋势线高度相关,且12个月平均线具有明显的先行性特征,作为反映生猪生产过冷过热的重要指标猪粮比,则可以有效弥补24个月移动平均线先行性特征不足的缺陷。通过实证分析,验证了基于生猪价格月度环比折年率移动平均线-猪粮比组合指标判断猪周期拐点方法的有效性,为探索适合我国国情的猪周期拐点判断方法提供了新的思路,以供学术界研究和探讨。

In the composition of China's CPI,food factor is the important factor which influencing its trend.Pork price is playing the lead role in the food factors frequently.So,it has extremely important meaning to forecast the periodic inflection point of hog price accurately for prediction of China's CPI trend.This paper made a comparison analysis between a combination index(which were monthly seasonally adjusted QoQ moving average of hog prices with pig grain ration)and time series of China's hog prices.The author found that the12and24monthly moving average lines of China's hog prices were highly related with trend line of China's hog prices,moreover the12-monthly average line got theobvious anticipatory character.Pig grain ratio,which was the key index for reflecting the hog productiontoo overheated or too cold,made up the deficiencies of24-monthly average line's anticipatory character shortage.This paper practiced the efficiency of forecasting the periodic inflection point of hog price by an empirical analysis,which provided a new thinking way for discussion and research.