粮食最低收购价政策对我国小麦种植面积的影响机理分析

Impact mechanism of the minimum grain purchase price policy on wheat planting areas in China

【目的】分析我国6个小麦主产区省份小麦种植面积的影响机理,为保障其种植面积及维护粮食安全提供政策参考。【方法】以小麦种植面积作为粮食最低收购价(政策)实施效果的评价标准,采用固定效应系数模型定量分析小麦最低收购价、家庭负担系数、城乡收入差距、农业机械总动力和外出务工人员比例对小麦种植面积的影响。【结果】影响小麦种植面积的因素各省份存在差异,四川省的主要影响因素是小麦最低收购价,其次是城乡收入差距;湖北省的主要影响因素是城乡收入差距;农业机械总动力对安徽、山东和江苏3省的影响程度最大;外出务工人员比例对安徽、山东、河南和四川4省份的小麦种植面积呈正向影响,且对河南省的影响程度最高,但对湖北和江苏的小麦种植面积呈负向影响。【建议】制定差异化的地方配套政策,提高政策针对性与适用性;推进农业供给侧结构性改革,补足粮食生产制度短板;完善农业社会化服务体系,提高粮食机械化服务水平。

【Objective】Impact mechanism of wheat planting areas in six main wheat planting provinces in China was studied to provide reference for ensuring wheat planting areas and maintaining grain security.【Method】Wheat plantingareas were set as the evaluation standard for the implementation of minimum grain purchase price policy.A fixed effect variable coefficient model of quantitative analysis were used to research the impacts of minimum purchase price of wheat,family burden coefficient,income gap between urban and rural areas,agricultural machinery total power and proportion of migrant workers on wheat planting areas.【Result】There were differences in the factors affecting the planting area of wheat in the six provinces.The main influencing factors in Sichuan Province were the minimum purchase price of wheat,followed by income gap between urban and rural areas.The main influencing factor in Hubei Province was income gap between urban and rural areas.Total power of agricultural machinery had the greatest influence on Anhui,Shandong and Jiangsu.Proportion of migrant workers in Anhui,Shandong,Henan,Sichuan had positive impact on wheat planting areas,and the impact on Henan Province was the maximum.But proportion of migrant workers had positive impact on wheat planting areas in Hubei and Jiangsu.【Suggestion】The following suggestions are proposed:to formulate differentiated local supporting policies to improve policy pertinence and applicability;to promote agricultural supply-side structural reforms to make up for the weak point in grain production system;to improve agricultural socialization service system and to raise the level of agricultural mechanization services.