处于地缘十字路口的格鲁吉亚及其战略选择

A Eurasian or a European Future for Post-Soviet Georgia's Economic Development and the Role of The Belt and Road Initiative

从格鲁吉亚未来发展的角度来看,其面临着如何在欧洲道路和欧亚道路之间选择的问题,同时也面临着如何把握"一带一路"倡议带来的机遇问题。从比较的角度看,欧盟无论在成立的目的、经济现状方面,还是在成员国的清廉程度方面,都好于欧亚经济联盟,而且长期以来,格鲁吉亚倾向于选择欧洲和欧洲—大西洋机制,并加入了欧盟的"欧洲睦邻政策"和"东部伙伴关系计划"合作机制。而俄罗斯主导的欧亚经济联盟,尽管在入盟难度上相对较小,但是其将油气资源收益的再分配机制作为基础,以俄罗斯向其他成员国让渡部分收益为手段,以此维持和增强俄罗斯的政治影响力。这导致欧亚经济联盟的脆弱性和不稳定性,因此使其与欧盟相比不具有优势。中国提出的"一带一路"倡议为世界经济发展创造了新的机遇。中国与格鲁吉亚在世界贸易组织框架下已经开展了一些合作,并奠定了合作基础。丝绸之路经济带规划中的中国—中亚—西亚经济走廊建设或将成为格鲁吉亚经济发展的新机遇。

The paper analyzes the economic models of the well-known Eurasianist doctrine of Russian imperial thinking, the Eurasian Economic Union(EAEU), and the Belt and Road(B&R) initiative. In the modern era of globalization, an alliance of countries on the basis of the Eurasianist economic model is impossible to establish. The newly established EAEU rests on a redistribution mechanism for oil and gas revenues, whereby Russia deliberately relinquishes a part of its due gains in favor of other member-states in order to not only induce economic interest to remain within the Union, but also to maintain and enhance its political influence via this economic output. Western economic sanctions imposed against Russia as a countermeasure to the annexation of Crimea and the military and political support provided to the breakaway regions of Eastern Ukraine, as well as the retaliatory anti-sanctions levied by Russia against the West, have demonstrated the fragility and instability of the EAEU. A comparison of the EU with the EAEU does not favor the latter. Although attaining membership of the EAEU is much easier than that of the EU, the negative aspects described above ensure that this option holds no appeal for post-Soviet Georgia. The B&R initiative presents new opportunities and challenges for Georgia to be an economic hub, connecting the EU and China.