美国国家实力衰落与国际权力格局的变化

American Decline and Changes in International Distribution of Power

探讨大国兴衰的历史规律是国际政治研究的重要内容,关于美国衰落的话题也是学术界争论的焦点。纵观战后现实,美国国家实力的相对衰落是客观存在的现象。这种衰落在显现必然趋势的同时,又会经历一个周期性的反复过程。这个过程并非线形的,而常常是在一定时期出现拐点,形成周期性循环。因此,客观性、相对性、周期性和必然性是美国国家实力衰落的主要规律特征。同时,由于这种衰落是一个动态曲折的过程,美国实力的变化将会导致国际权力的分散和国际权力结构的震动,进而对国际权力格局及其所衍生出的既有秩序和规则产生一定冲击和影响。这主要表现为国际权力竞争加剧、国际体系转型变化凸显、国际秩序变革斗争激烈和国际安全形势日趋严峻。作为崛起中的新兴大国,中国要正确认识美国国家实力衰落的基本规律,妥善应对国际权力格局的动荡变化。

The rise and fall of great powers has been a much-discussed phenomenon and widely explored subject in the academic field of world politics. The debate over America's power position in the international system has been a contentious subject since at least the end of the Cold War. This article argues that although America's decline is inevitable, the process will not be a linear one and will take years even decades. The relative decline of American power will lead to a new pattern of power configuration and as a result create shock waves across the whole international system. New great powers will emerge and orders, regional and global, will be structured in a way that is significantly different from when America was the sole superpower. Under a new power configuration, regional and global geopolitical competition will increase and security challenges will proliferate. A comprehensive examination of the historical patterns of the rise and fall of great powers and the trajectory of America's power decline will help China better understand and prepare for possible risks and upheavals.