“伊斯兰国”在撒哈拉以南非洲地区的渗透及其影响因素分析

ISIS in Sub-Saharan Africa and Its Impacts

"伊斯兰国"在撒哈拉以南非洲地区迅速蔓延,既是其建立所谓"哈里发国家"战略图谋的一部分,同时也与其在伊拉克和叙利亚遭到重创后寻求新的生存空间有关。"伊斯兰国"在这一地区形成了较为完整、严密的渗透网络体系,并争夺"基地"组织的势力范围。其扩张的有利因素主要包括当地伊斯兰极端主义盛行,国家治理能力低下甚至缺失,社会矛盾激化等;不利因素主要包括本土极端组织对"伊斯兰国"的依赖相对有限,"基地"组织影响深厚,全球反恐合作制约了"伊斯兰国"的扩张。鉴于其渗透是该地区自身"顽疾"的综合体现,相关国家在推动国际合作,共同应对"伊斯兰国"威胁的同时,应加强自身治理能力建设,从源头上压缩"伊斯兰国"的渗透空间。

The rapid spread of the self-proclaimed Islamic State of Iraq and Syria in sub-Saharan Africa was not only part of an extremist group's scheme to entrench its political and ideological position but also a tactic to seek new living space after significant defeats in Iraq and Syria. ISIS has built a closely-knit network to grab land formerly controlled by Al-Qaeda. Prevailing Islamic extremism, governance failure, and social chaos all work to the advantage of ISIS. But the growth of local Islamic extremist organizations, remnants of Al-Qaeda presence, a Western-led anti-ISIS coalition imposes significant pressures on ISIS's continuing expansion. To take out ISIS once and for all, a globally concerted effort is required to tackle the root cause of ISIS's appeal and expansion.