我国生产性服务贸易对货物价格贸易条件的影响——基于伯格斯模型

The Influence of China′s Productive Service Tradeon Terms of Trade in Goods——Based on Burgess Model

在我国服务贸易快速发展的同时,其总体竞争力较弱,部门结构不合理等问题制约着我国货物贸易的可持续发展。在分析伯格斯模型的基础上,利用1997-2016年的面板数据,通过单位根检验、协整分析和误差修正模型,考察我国生产性服务贸易与货物价格贸易条件之间的关系。研究结果表明,无论是从长期还是短期来看,生产性服务贸易的净进口额与货物价格贸易条件呈更强的负相关关系,即我国生产性服务贸易净进口额的增加,导致我国货物价格贸易条件的恶化,这证明了伯格斯模型在我国的适用性。

With the rapid development of China′s service trade,its overall competitiveness is weak,and its sector structure is irrational,which restricts the sustainable development of China′s goods trade.Based on the analysis of Burgess model,we use the panel data of1997-2016years to investigate the relationship between producer services trade and terms of trade in goods in China through unit root test,cointegration analysis and error correction model.The results show that,in terms of long-term and short-term,the net imports of productive service trade and terms of trade in goods is negatively correlated,namely the increase in net imports of China′s productive service trade,leading to the deterioration of terms of trade in goods,which proves the applicability of the Burgess model in China.