西安市机动车污染控制策略实施效益评估

Practice and assessment of motor vehicle emission control strategies in Xi'an,China

为研究未来西安市机动车污染控制策略的实施效果,基于情景分析法,以MOVES模型为平台,预测2020年西安市机动车PM_(2.5)、PM_(10)、NO_x、总碳氢化合物(THC)、CO、SO_2排放量分别为1 531.41、1 596.33、44 159.48、14 029.62、383 200.08、5 164.63t。设置5类不同控制措施情景,分析其对机动车的减排效果。结果显示:单一措施中,淘汰"黄标车"和老旧车对污染减排效果最明显,6种污染物均有较大幅度减排;调控轻型客车保有量可明显削减THC、CO的排放,减排比例分别为13.49%、18.59%;提升燃油质量可使各车型SO_2的减排比例均达到90%以上;使用替代燃料情景的污染物减排比例相对较低,但也是一种有效的控制策略;综合控制措施的减排效果最为显著,与基准情景相比,2020年PM_(2.5)、PM_(10)、NO_x、THC、CO和SO_2减排比例分别为78.50%、78.37%、71.77%、72.47%、76.94%、98.30%。

In order to study the effects of motor vehicle emission control strategies in Xi’an in the near future,the emission of motor vehicles in this city was calculated based on scenario analysis through the use of MOVES model.It was predicated that the PM 2.5,PM 10,NO x,THC,CO and SO 2 emission of Xi’an in 2020 was 1 531.41,1 596.33,44 159.48,14 029.62,383 200.08 and 5 164.63 t.Five emission control strategies were developed,and their effects on emission reduction were analyzed.It showed that phasing out the“yellow label vehicles”and other vehicles meeting lower emission standards was the most efficient single scenario,and all types of pollutants were deeply cut in emissions;limiting the holdings of light vehicles contributed a reduction of THC and CO by 13.49%and 18.59%;improving the fuel quality could reduce the emission of SO 2 by more than 90%;scenario of alternate fuels had a little effect on pollutant emission reduction,while it was still an effective control strategy;the most effective means of emission control was the combination of all above strategies(reductions of PM 2.5,PM 10,NO x,THC,CO and SO 2 could be up to 78.50%,78.37%,71.77%,72.47%,76.94%and 98.30%,respectively in 2020 compared with baseline scenario).