21世纪海上丝绸之路:风能的长期变化趋势

Wind energy trend in the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road

针对风能开发中长期规划的需求,利用来自ECMWF的ERA-Interim风场,计算了"21世纪海上丝绸之路"风能的长期变化趋势,全面包括风能密度、有效风速频率、200 W/m2以上能级频率、资源稳定性等要素的逐年变化趋势、变化趋势的区域性、季节性差异。结果表明近37年(1979-2015年)期间,"海上丝绸之路"的风能资源是趋于乐观的:大部分海域的风能密度、有效风速频率、200 W/m2以上能级频率呈显著性递增或无显著变化趋势,仅部分零星海域呈显著性递减;大部分海域风能密度的稳定性也趋于乐观。

Based on the demand of the mid-long term plan of wind energy development,this study presents the long-term change trend of wind energy in the21st Century Maritime Silk Road,which is based on of the ERA-interim wind field from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF).The annual trend,seasonal and regional differences of the trends of wind power density(WPD),effective wind speed occurrence(EWSO),occurrence of WPD greater than200W/m2(rich level occurrence,RLO),and stability of wind energy were exhibited.The results showed that the wind energy trend in the Maritime Silk Road for the past37years(1979-2015)has been optimistic:most ocean regions show either significant increasing trends or no significant changes in WPD,EWSO,and RLO and only some small regions show significant decreasing trends.Most ocean regions show optimistic trends with regard to wind energy stabilities.