1961～2015年贵州省气候生产潜力估算及趋势分析

ESTYMATION AND PREDICTION OF CLIMATIC POTENTIAL PRODUCTIVITY IN GUIZHOU DURING 1961～2015

[目的]估算和预测分析贵州复杂地形下的气候生产潜力,为充分利用气候资源和农业可持续发展提供科学依据。[方法]基于1961~2015年贵州81个气象观测站的平均温度和降水量气象资料,运用Miami模型、Thornthwaite Memorial模型,计算了温度、降水和气候生产潜力,并运用气候倾向率、MannKendall突变检验、GIS空间插值和R/S等方法分析其变化特征。[结果]温度生产潜力以9.2kg/(hm^2·10年)的速率递增,降水生产潜力呈递减趋势,递减速率为13.27kg/(hm^2·10年),气候生产潜力呈递增趋势,递增速率为0.73kg/(hm^2·10年),多年平均值为1 462.12kg/hm^2;空间分布上温度、降水生产潜力与年平均温度和年降水量的空间分布一致,气候生产潜力总体呈现出南高北低,由东南向西北递减变化趋势;平均气温和降水量对气候生产潜力均有正影响,其中降水量是主要限制因子,R/S结果表明,温度生产潜力和气候生产潜力继续保持增长趋势而降水生产潜力保持递减趋势。[结论]影响贵州气候生产潜力最重要的因素是降水,其次是光温条件的综合效应。

This paper estimated and predicted the climate production potential under complex terrain in Guizhou to make full use of climate resources and sustainable agricultural development.Based on temperature and precipitation meteorological data from the 81 meteorological stations in Guizhou during 1961~2015,it calculated the temperature,precipitation and climatic potential productivity,also the climate tendency rate by using the Miami model and Thorn Thwaite Memorial model,and analyzed its characteristics using Mann-Kendall mutation testing,GIS interpolation and R/S method.The results showed that:the temperature production potential kept increasing with a rate of 9.2 kg·hm-2·10a-1 and the precipitation potential productivity kept decreasing at the rate of 13.27 kg·hm-2·10a-1,the climate production potential kept increasing at rate of 0.73 kg·hm-2·10a-1,the average value was 1462.12 kg·hm-2;The spatial distribution of temperature and precipitation potential was consistent with the annual average temperature and annual precipitation,the climate production potential was overall high in North and low in South,and descended from the southeast to northwest trend;The average temperature and precipitation had positive effects on the climatic potential productivity,and precipitation was the main limiting factor;R/S analysis results showed that the temperature potential productivity and climatic potential productivity continued to increase,while the precipitation production potential kept decreasing.In the study area,the climate potential productivity would keep increasing tendency.Precipitation was the main factor restricting the climate production potential,followed by the comprehensive effect of light and temperature conditions.