替代效应还是互补效应?——上海国际投资与国际贸易相互关系的实证研究

Substitutionary or Complementary?——Empirical Research on Relationship between International Trade and International Investment in Shanghai

建设国际贸易中心是上海战略构想的关键点,而当前的发展趋势是贸易中心向投资贸易枢纽的转变。因此,理解和把握国际投资和国际贸易之间的关系是值得关注的理论问题。经实证检验,上海国际投资与国际贸易之间呈现复杂的关系。总体而言,贸易替代投资,投资对贸易有引导作用。通过两阶段误差修正模型的研究及比较分析,可以发现,在上海加入世界贸易组织前,上海国际投资和国际贸易之间主要表现为替代关系,在加入世界贸易组织后,两者主要表现为互补关系。据此,上海在施政时应注意两者的长期协调关系,善用结构性投资贸易政策。

Construction of an international rtade center is the key point of Shanghai strategic plan,whilecurrent development trend is the transformation of international trade center into FDI(foreign direct investment)pivot.Therefore,the relationship between international trade and FDI is a theoretical highlight.An empirical study shows that the relationship between international trade and FDI in Shanghai iscomplex.In general,trade substitutes FDI and FDI guides trade.Two-stage VEC model(vector error correctionmodel)reveals that the relationship between trade and FDI was mainly substitutionary entering WTO and complementaryafter that.In view of this,Shanghai government to the long-term coordination between them and adopt structural trade and invetmentpolicies.