后中等收入经济体的对外开放——国际经验对中国的启示

Opening-up in the Upper Middle-Income Phase——Implications from International Experiences

在经历了三十余年的高速经济增长后,以人均GDP衡量,中国已经步入后中等收入阶段。在下一步由中高收入阶段迈向高收入阶段的过程中,我们希望从国际经验中总结一些规律性事实。本文按照不同国家在中等收入阶段停留的时间长短,把国家分为三类(前沿国家,赶超成功国家,赶超失败国家),然后分别从外贸、投资、汇率制度和资本账户开放等多维度进行比较。结果显示,赶超成功国家有效地缩小了与前沿国家的差距,而赶超失败国家却在某些方面出现了赶超的停滞。从机制上看,对外开放政策的好处在于它鼓励了市场竞争,提高了要素全球配置的效率,同时促进了产业升级和结构转型。此外,适当的汇率制度以及审慎的资本账户开放政策对于维持宏观环境的稳定有着重要作用。

After expanding rapidly for more than thirty years,China has stepped into the upper middleincome phase in terms of per capita GDP.Now the country can draw from international experiences to help it transition from the upper middle-income to the high-income phase.Classifying countries into three groups(i.e.frontier,successful catch-ups and failed catchups)in accordance with the durations they stay in the middle-income stage,this article compares those three groups from the aspects of foreign trade,investment,exchange rate regime and capital account openness,and finds that the successful catch-ups have managed to narrow their gaps with frontiers,while failed catch-ups have remained at the bottom or even stagnant in some aspects.The article argues that opening-up policies are beneficial since they encourage market competition,improve the efficiency of global resource allocation,and boost industrial upgrading and structural transformation;meanwhile,a proper exchange rate regime and prudent capital account opening-up are key to ensuring a country's macroeconomic stability.