非传统货币政策的理论、效果及启示

Theory, Effect and Implications of Unconventional Monetary Policies

前瞻性指引、量化宽松、负利率、中国结构性货币政策等非传统货币政策的相继实施,扩展了货币政策的理论边界。货币政策不仅能解决总量需求、系统性金融风险,也能解决宏观经济存在的结构性问题。本文先从理论基础、主要工具、传导渠道三个方面对非传统货币政策进行了较为系统、深入的分析。在此基础上,通过事件研究法以中欧为例评估实施效果,发现非传统货币政策能够显著地降低货币市场和债券市场的利率,维护金融稳定;随着工具的持续使用,实施效果边际递减;中国结构性货币政策工具的效果显著强于其他工具。最后,本文从工具本身的弊端、注重市场机制、外溢和退出风险、创新工具四点出发,给出了中国完善结构性货币政策的政策建议。

Forward guidance,quantitative easing,negative interest rate—China's adoption of structural monetary policy and other non-traditional monetary policies has expanded the theoretical boundaries of monetary policy.Monetary policy can not only increase total demand and reduce systemic financial risks but also solve the structural macroeconomic problems.This article makes a systematic analysis of non-traditional monetary policies from three perspectives:theoretical basis,tool classification and transmission channel.On the basis of the analysis,it adopts the event study method to evaluate the effect of such policies by European Central Bank and People's Bank of China and finds that non-traditional monetary policies can significantly reduce the interest rate of the money and bond markets to ensure financial stability.With the continual use of the tool,the effect diminishes,and in China,structural monetary policy tools are significantly stronger than others.Finally,this article provides advices on improving China's structural monetary policy from the perspectives of drawbacks of the tool,emphasis on market mechanism,spillover and exit risks,market mechanism and tool innovation.