基于GM(1,1)模型的福州市房价预测

Forecast of Fuzhou Housing Price Based on GM(1,1)Model

近年来,社会各界对房地产市场的关注度日益高涨,如何有效地对房价走势进行预测,抑制房价过高增长显得尤为迫切。以福州市为例,首先利用2016年1月-2017年11月福州市新建住宅均价的相关数据建立GM(1,1)预测模型;并通过与实际数据进行比较和误差检验,验证该模型在房价预测中具有较高的精确度;最后预测福州市2018年5月-2019年6月福州市房价走势,以期为政府部门制定房价宏观调控措施提供参考依据。

In recent years,people from all walks of life have paid more and more attention to the real estate market.How to effectively predict the trend of housing prices and restrain the excessive growth of house prices is particularly urgent.Taking Fuzhou as an example,the GM(1,1)forecasting model is first established by using the data about the average price of new residential buildings in Fuzhou City from January 2016 to November 2017.The data are compared with the actual data to verify the GM The model has a higher accuracy in predicting the price of house;finally predicts the price trend of Fuzhou from May 2018 to June 2019,with a view to providing reference for the government to formulate the macro-control measures of housing prices.