中美竞争视角下对“稳定发展中美关系”的再审视

Reconsideration of "Developing Steady Sino-U.S. Relations" from the Perspective of Sino-US Competition

在美国看来,中美竞争的核心是未来主导世界权力格局的经济潜力。中美以竞争为主导的关系主要基于美国对双方经济实力相对变化趋势的悲观预期和回应,而非根据中国当下的行为,因此中国以增强战略互信为目标的友善示好不能改变中美关系的本质和美国对华政策的大方向。当前阶段,中美结构性矛盾尚未体现在国际领导权的竞争上,而首先体现在对未来世界头号经济强国的较量上。中国首先面临来自美国旨在预防性破坏中国经济实力积累的"经济压力陷阱",而非大国军事冲突的"修昔底德陷阱",因此更需要重视20世纪80年代日本经济崛起失败的教训,警惕美国利用中国稳定发展中美关系的迫切愿望,令中国以损伤自身经济发展为代价对美国做出让步。稳定发展中美关系一旦被视为解决一揽子外交难题和崛起困境的要结,成为指导中国对美外交实践的目标,则中美关系稳定向好将可能成为美国对中国进行反复勒索和要价的筹码,中国在周边的战略信誉和影响力也将遭到破坏。稳定发展中美关系的策略和目标不可本末倒置,美国的战略重要性与中美关系必须好亦不能混为一谈,这要求中国对稳定发展中美关系的代价进行充分评估,同时转换思维理性看待和应对中美关系的负面走向。避免在自身战略利益上丧失与美国的博弈能力,秉持实力原则和利益导向,展示维护国家利益的决心和行动能力,并且切实将外交重点放在经营好东亚地区,中国才能以大国的身份与美国进行各取所需的利益交换。

The core of the competition between China and the U.S. is the economic power to dominate the world power pattern in the future. The China-U.S. rivalry is based more on the pessimistic expectations and responses of the United States on the relative economic strength of the two countries than on the current situation of China. China'hancing strategic mutual trust cannot change the nature so friendly approach to the goal of enf China-U.S. relations and American policy towards China. In the current time, the structural contradiction between China and the United States is not yet reflected in the competition of international leadership,but reflected in the competition of the world's leading economic power. China first faces the "economic pressure trap" pertaining to the U.S. seeking to prevent the build-up of China'economic power, rather than the so-called "Thucydides trap" of major military conflicts. The sstrategic importance of the United States must not be confused with the essence of China-U.S.relations, which requires that China should make a full assessment of the cost of stable development of China-U.S. relations. At the same time, there has to be a transformation of the thinking about the negative direction of China-U.S. relations. To avoid China' it should uphold own principle of power and interest oriesn loss of own strategic interests,tations,show the determination and acting ability, and maintain own national interests and beyond in a rational way.