中国副省级城市综合交通与旅游经济互动效应研究——基于2001—2015年面板数据的实证检验

Sub-provincial Cities' Interactive Effect Between Comprehensive Transport and Tourism Economy in China——An Empirical Study Based on 2001-2015 Panel Data

运用面板VAR模型对我国15个副省级城市的2001—2015年交通客运与旅游经济增长的相互作用水平进行测度和评价,分析各城市2016年度节假日期间的旅游迁徙热度和交通分担率的空间差异格局和成因。研究结果表明,在综合交通与旅游经济的边际效应互动方面,副省级城市综合交通运输与旅游经济均呈现稳步增长,但综合交通对旅游经济增长的边际效应大于旅游经济对综合交通的边际效应。整体来看,时空视角下的副省级城市综合交通与旅游经济互动效应呈二元相关且多重优化的发展趋势,加强交通的反向作用以提高旅游经济贡献率、构建不同尺度和等级的旅游走廊以推进旅游经济带建设以及发挥副省级管理权限促进旅游经济内生性增长,将成为实现交通与旅游经济交替主导和协同增长的有效手段。

Taking 15 China's sub-provincial cities for research,this article first measures and evaluates the level of interaction between transport and tourism economic growth from 2001 to 2015 via PVAR model,and then analyzes the spatial differentiation framework of sub-provincial cities'tourist flows as well as transport contribution rates in 29 public holidays in 2016 based on Tencent Location Data.Research results show that in terms of the marginal effect between comprehensive transport and tourism economy,both have been growing steadily in China's sub-provincial cities,but the marginal effect of comprehensive transport on the tourism economic growth is greater than that of the tourism economic growth on comprehensive transport.Generally,from the perspective of time and space,the interactive effect between comprehensive transport and tourism economy indicates the trend of bivariate correlation as well as multiple optimization among sub-provincial cities.Hence,to strengthen comprehensive transport reverse efforts to enhance tourism economic contribution,to construct different scales and grades of Tourism Corridors to promote tourism economy,and to exploit full advantage of sub-provincial governance authority to cultivate tourism economy's endogenous growth are deemed to be effective measures to realize the alternate dominance and mutual growth of comprehensive transport and tourism economy.