山东省普惠金融发展的减贫效应研究——基于状态空间模型的实证分析

The Inclusive Finance Development in Shandong Province and Its Impact on Poverty Reduction Based on State Space Model

本文以山东省2000—2015年为观测期,通过构建普惠金融指数测算了该时期山东省普惠金融发展状况,然后利用状态空间模型考察普惠金融通过直接和间接作用减贫效果的动态变化。实证结果显示,山东省普惠金融发展水平呈现上升趋势,但2004—2008年间处于波动状态。普惠金融对促进贫困减缓有显著影响,其弹性保持在0.92左右。其中,直接作用效果先降后升,间接作用先升后降,但间接作用减贫的效果强于直接作用。

Nowadays,the problem of poverty has become an important factor constraining the development of national economy and social undertakings.Whether finance can help to reduce poverty and to what extent it can help are discussed.Thus,we use the data of Shandong Province to measure its inclusive finance index and then investigate the direct and indirect effect of inclusive finance reducing poverty based on state space model.The results show that firstly,the inclusive finance environment in Shandong Province is becoming better;secondly,the effect of finance reducing poverty is on the rise,and its indirect impact is stronger than its direct impact.