行业前景、市场占先与产能过剩

Industry Prospect, Market Preemption and Excess Capacity

占先企业是否存在及如何导致行业产能过剩?本文数理分析行业的前景属性(好与差)、准入属性(壁垒与自由)、投资属性(轻资产与重资产)三者不同组合下市场占先均衡的产能利用效应。研究发现:(1)对于进入壁垒存在的轻资产行业,前景差则当前产能适宜、未来产能过剩,前景较好则当前和未来皆产能适宜,前景很好则当前产能适宜、未来产能过剩;(2)对于进入壁垒存在的重资产行业,前景很差则当前和未来皆产能短缺,前景较差则当前产能适宜、未来产能过剩,前景较好则当前和未来皆产能短缺,前景很好则当前和未来皆产能适宜,前景极好则当前产能适宜、未来产能过剩;(3)对于进入自由的微资产行业,无论前景如何,当前和未来皆产能过剩;(4)对于进入自由的轻资产行业,前景很差则当前产能适宜、未来产能过剩,前景较差或好则当前和未来皆产能过剩;(5)对于进入自由的重资产行业,前景极差则当前和未来皆产能短缺,前景很差则当前产能适宜、未来产能过剩,前景较差或好则当前和未来皆产能过剩。该发现对深入认识产能过剩的市场本质具有学术价值:(1)需求不足与产能过剩并非硬币正反面,需求不足可能产能过剩,但也可能产能短缺,且产能过剩也可能需求正旺;(2)前景好时,潮涌现象导致产能过剩的表现形式除潜在企业的市场进入潮涌外,还会表现为在位企业的产能扩张潮涌;(3)产能过剩不仅在信息不对称或市场不确定时发生,即便在信息对称且市场确定时也会发生。在相关文献的边际贡献上,市场占先导致行业产能持续性过剩的经典论断是占先均衡在特殊情形下的结果,其经典命题是本文命题的特例。在产业政策的设计指导上,对防范产能过剩的实践启示为:准确识别行业的准入属性、前景属性、投资属性是准确预判行业是否产能过剩、何时过剩、如何过剩的必要且充分条件;对化解产能过剩的实践启示为:供给侧出的问题(如重复建设导致产能过剩)试图通过需求侧去解决(如刺激需求)则缘木求鱼,有时适得其反(如加剧产能过剩)。

whether and how the preempted firm lead to industrial excess capacity?In this paper,effects of capacity utilization were mathematically analyzed in market preemption equilibria of three different combinations of prospect property(good v.s bad),entrance property(barrier v.s.free),investment property(light asset v.s heavy asset)of the industry.The study found that:(1)for the entry barrier of asset light industry,if prospect is bad,current capacity is normal,future capacity is excess;if prospect is good,both current and future capacities are normal,if prospect is better,current capacity is normal,future capacity is excess.(2)for the entry barrier of asset heavy industry,if prospect is worse,both current and future capacities are shortage;if prospect is bad,current capacity is normal,future capacity is excess;if prospect is good,both current and future capacities are shortage;if prospect is better,both current and future capacities are normal;if prospect is best,current capacity is normal,future capacity is excess.(3)for the entry free of asset micro industry,no matter what the prospects are,both current and future capacities are excess.(4)for the entry free of asset light industry,if prospect is worse,current capacity is normal,future capacity is excess;if prospect is bad or good,both current and future capacities are excess.(5)for the entry free of asset heavy industry,if prospect is worst,both current and future capacities are shortage;if prospect is worse,current capacity is normal,future capacity is excess;if prospect is bad or good,both current and future capacities are excess.The discovery has three academic implications for understanding market essence of excess capacity:(1)scant demand and excess capacity are not the reverse side of the coin,scant demand may lead to excess capacity,but it may also lead to capacity shortage,and excess capacity may be the result of excess demand.(2)for good prospect,the investing tide lead to excess capacity in addition to potential firm market entering tide,but also to the incumbent firm capacity expanding tide.(3)excess capacity occurs not only when information asymmetry or market uncertainty,but even occurs when information is symmetric and market is determined.In the marginal contribution of the relevant literature,the classical conclusion that market preemption lead to persisting excess capacity is the preemption equilibrium in special case,its classical proposition is special case of this paper.In the design guide of industrial policy,to prevent excess capacity,accurate identification of industrial entrance,prospect,investment properties are a necessary and sufficient condition to accurately determine the industry whether,when,and how happens excess capacity;to resolve excess capacity,supply problems(e.g.reestablishment lead to excess capacity)tries to solve by demand(e.g.stimulating demand)is futile,sometimes counterproductive(e.g.exacerbate excess capacity).