东亚、东南亚地区经济收敛与区域内贸易对其促进效应的实证研究

The Empirical Study on Economic Convergence and The Accelerating Effect of Intra-Regional Trade in East and Southeast Asia

本文以1952-2016年亚洲15个经济体的数据为样本,全面衡量该区域在过去64年中人均GDP的收敛性,并分时期、分收入组讨论了区域内贸易对经济收敛过程的促进效应。实证结果表明,整个区域内的人均GDP差距呈现缩小的趋势,但无法得到整体收敛的结论,收敛只存在于特定组别和特定的时间区间。"出口导向型"的发展战略在亚洲金融危机前极大促进了先进经济体的经济增长,并帮助它们完成对发达国家的追赶。但亚洲金融危机之后,尤其是2008年全球金融危机后,随着世界经济的疲软和贸易保护主义的抬头,区域内贸易在各经济体对外贸易中扮演了更为重要的角色。区域内经贸合作的发展不仅有效拉动了经济增长,且后进经济体能够从中获得更多的发展收益,实现对先进经济体的追赶,有助于区域经济的平衡发展。

The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether there is a tendency to convergence in East and Southeast Asia and explore the contribution of intra-regional trade to income convergence process in different periods and within specific groups of economies.Data of 15 Asian economies over the period of 1952 to 2016 are employed.The empirical results suggest that the income inequality is decreasing,but regional income convergence does not exist.The export-orientated strategy greatly promote the development of those newly industrializing economies and help them to catch up with developed countries before the Asian financial crisis,but after the crisis,with the worldwide economy depression and export predicament,intra-regional trade is playing a more important role in stimulating their economic growth.Moreover,underdeveloped economies will benefit more from the intra-regional trade,allowing they catch up with the developed economies and finally achieve balanced regional development.