皖江城市带经济增速空间相关结构的时空演化特点——基于Sampson-Guttorp方法的实证研究

Spatial-temporal Evolution Characteristics of Spatial Correlation Structure of Economic Growth in the City-cluster along the Yangtze River in Anhui Province——An Empirical Study Based on the Sampson-Guttorp Method

文章以Sampson-Guttorp空间相关非参数估计方法为基本工具,分析皖江城市带正式确立前后带内县域经济增长速度的空间相关结构,以此分析确立前后各县区间经济增速变化的依赖情况及依赖情况的变化特点。结果表明:皖江城市带的确立促进了跨江联动,但合肥、芜湖两地的联动有待加强;皖江城市带的确立使经济增速的空间差异状况发生变化,经济增速变化同步的县区由从北向南的团块状分布改为从东向西的条带状分布,且确立前带内经济增速交错变化,而确立后带内西部地区的经济增速高于东部;皖江城市带示范区规划具有现实基础,但各县区间经济联系的动态变化性、经济区与行政区的不一致性依然存在。

Based on the Sampson-Guttorp spatial correlation nonparametric estimation method,the spatial correlation structures of economic growth rate at county-level before and after the formal establishment of the City-cluster along the Yangtze River in Anhui province are analyzed.Accordingly,the dependence of economic growth rate change and the changing characteristics of dependence at county-level are analyzed.The results show that:The establishment of the City-cluster along the Yangtze River in Anhui province promotes the combined development across the Yangtze River,but the combined development between Hefei city and Wuhu city needs to be strengthened;With the establishment of the City-cluster along the Yangtze River in Anhui province,the spatial difference of economic growth rate has changed.The county-level administrative areas with economic growth rate changing synchronously have changed from the block distribution from the north to the south to the strip distribution from the east to the west,and the economic growth in the City-cluster is interlaced before the establishment.Whereas the economic growth in the western region is higher than that in the eastern region after the establishment;The demonstration area program has a good foundation on the reality basis,but the dynamic change of economic relations between areas at county-level and the inconsistency between the economic area and the administrative area still exist.