信贷与房价关系实证分析——基于35个城市面板

On Credit and Housing Price:Evidence from 35 Cities of China

利用1999-2014年35个大中城市的面板数据,使用协整模型实证分析信贷与房价的关系.协整分析发现房价与信贷之间互为因果,互相推动,证实了信贷与房价正反馈的理论机制.通过均衡分析,本文发现了信贷投放过剩的情况.提出了建立逆周期性监管,并在东部保持信贷投放稳定,而在中西部适度收紧货币的政策.

Utilizing panel data of 35 large and medium cities in China,this paper empirically studies the relationship between credit and housing price,and it shows that the relationship between housing price and credit is reciprocal causation and mutual enhancement,proving the positive feedback system of credit and housing price.Through equilibrium analysis,the paper points out the redundancy of credit at the end of the period.At last,the paper suggests establishing countercyclical regulation policies,keeping credit delivery stable in eastern areas and tightening monetary policies in western.