我国全科医生数量和分布现状及需要量预测研究

Number,Distribution and Predicted Needed Number of General Practitioners in China

目的了解我国全科医生数量和分布现状,并预测其未来需要量。方法以《2014中国卫生和计划生育统计年鉴》、《2016中国卫生和计划生育统计年鉴》以及《2016中国统计年鉴》为资料来源,收集2012—2015年我国及各地区全科医生数量和人口数。采用SPSS 22.0统计软件进行描述性统计分析,采用灰色数列模型[GM(1,1)]模型以及人力人口比值法对2016—2020年我国全科医生的未来需要量进行预测。结果 2012—2015年,我国全科医生数量分别为109 794、145 511、172 597、188 649名,增长了78 855名,年均增长率为19.77%。截至2015年底,我国全国、东部、中部、西部地区取得全科医生培训合格证书的全科医生分别占63.76%(120 285/188 649)、60.06%(62 474/104 015)、65.20%(29 565/45 344)、71.89%(28 246/39 290);我国全国、东部、中部、西部地区每万人口拥有的全科医生数分别为1.37、1.83、1.05、1.06名,按2名全科医生/万人配置标准全科医生缺口数分别为86 275、9 787、40 764、34 976名。GM(1,1)模型预测,2016—2020年,按照自然增长趋势我国全科医生总数分别为220 314、253 728、293 101、339 928、396 228名。按照每万人口拥有2~3名全科医生的标准,人力人口比值法计算结果显示,预测我国2020年的全科医生总数为277 000~415 500名。结论近年来我国全科医生数增长较快,但普遍缺口较大,分布不均衡,合格全科医生比例也不高,应加强全科医生队伍建设力度,完善全科医生培养体系。

Objective To investigate the number and distribution of general practitioners(GPs)in China,and to predict the needed number of GPs in the future.Methods From China's Health and Family Planning Statistics Yearbook 2014,China's Health and Family Planning Statistical Yearbook 2014,China's Health Statistical Yearbook 2016 and we obtained the number of GPs and populations in China and each of its provinces from 2012-2015.SPSS Statistics V22.0 was used to conduct descriptive statistical analysis.Grey model GM(1,1)and workforce-to-population ratio method were employed to predict the needed number of GPs in China from 2016 to 2020.Results From 2012 to 2015,the total number of GPs in China was 109 794,145 511,172 597 and 188 649,respectively.Compared with 2012,it increased by 78 855.And its average annual growth rate was 19.77%.By the end of 2015,of the GPs in China,eastern,central and western China,those who achieved a qualification certificate for general practitioner following training accounted for 63.76%(120 285/188 649),60.06%(62 474/104 015),65.20%(29 565/45 344),71.89%(28 246/39 290),respectively.The number of GPs per 10 000 population in China,eastern,central and western China was 1.37,1.83,1.05,1.06,respectively,and the needed number of GPs for China and its three parts would be 86 275,9 787,40 764,34 976,respectively if calculated based on the standard of 2 GPs per 10 000 population.The results of prediction with grey model GM(1,1)revealed that,in accordance with the natural growth trend of GPs,the number of GPs in China would be 220 314 in 2016,253 728 in 2017,293 101 in 2018,339 928 in 2019,396 228 in 2020.Moreover,the number of GPs in China in 2020 would be 277 000-415 500 if calculated GPs to population ratio based on the standard of 2-3 GPs per 10 000 population.Conclusion In recent years,although the number of GPs has increased rapidly,GPs are still greatly needed in China and eastern,central and western China.Moreover,the distribution of GPs is not balanced,and qualified GPs are far from enough.Therefore,the team building for GPs should be strengthened,and the training system for GPs should be improved.