对非援助会减轻腐败对投资的“摩擦效应”吗——兼论“一带一路”倡议下中非经贸合作策略

Can Aid Mitigate the Effect of Corruption on Investment?——The Sino-Africa Trade and Economic Cooperation Strategy Based on the Belt and Road Initiative

提升中国与非洲的经贸合作水平是"一带一路"倡议的重要内容,其中对非援助和对非直接投资是深化中非经贸合作的两大核心。本文采用2002—2013年47个非洲国家的面板数据,在考虑腐败的内生性以及使用全球清廉指数的基础上,运用系统GMM方法和2SLS方法,实证检验了东道国腐败和中国对非洲国家的援助对中国对外直接投资(OFDI)的影响。实证研究结果表明:(1)非洲国家的腐败对中国对非直接投资具有"摩擦效应",不存在"润滑效应";(2)中国对非援助通过"基础设施效应"尤其是经济基础设施的改善,对直接投资具有显著的促进作用;(3)分样本回归显示,中国对非经济基础设施类援助能有效减轻东道国腐败对直接投资的负面影响,生产部门以及其他部门的援助对直接投资的直接促进作用和间接效应均不明显。使用撒哈拉以南非洲样本和利用投资项目数作为被解释变量的回归仍然得到稳健性结论。

The Belt and Road(B&R)Initiative provides a golden opportunity to enhance Sino-Africa trade and economic cooperation.Adopting the panel data of 47 African countries from 2002 to 2013,and using the System GMM method and 2SLS approach,this paper empirically examines the effects of the host country corruption on China s foreign direct investment,and discusses the role of China s aid to African countries.The results show that:(1)The corruption of African countries“sand the wheels”of China s outward foreign direct investment(OFDI)rather than“grease the wheels”of China s OFDI;(2)China s aid to Africa,especially the aid in the economic infrastructure,has a significant effect on improving China s OFDI through the“infrastructure effect”;(3)Sub-sample regression analysis indicates that the aid in non-economic infrastructure can effectively mitigate the adverse effect of corruption on China s OFDI.However,the moderation effect of the aid in production and other sectors is not obvious.