产品复杂度、产品密度与产业升级——基于产品空间理论的研究

Empirical Study on Product Complexity,Product Density and Industrial Upgrading:Based on Product Space View

本文基于产品空间理论研究产品复杂度、产品密度及其二者交互的结构特征对产业升级的影响。利用1962—2015年148个国家794种产品的全球商品贸易四位码面板数据,分别运用OLS与Probit进行实证检验,计量结果表明:(1)产品复杂度越高,产业升级的难度系数递增,实现产业升级的可能性越低;但是,产品复杂度的增加,抑制优势产业失势的能力提高,对产业失势具有显著阻止作用。(2)产品密度越高,产业跳跃幅度越小,有利于产业升级的实现;同时,产品转换的风险越低,越能够加速落后产业失势,退出市场。(3)产品复杂度与产品密度具有相互促进作用,二者的交互对产业升级与失势具有显著正向影响,有利于促进经济结构调整。因此,产业升级是基于整体能力网络的系统工程,通过同时提升产品复杂度和产品密度,开展前瞻性产品结构顶层设计与能力建构之间的互动,有助于一国谋求全球新地位。

The rising view of product space interprets product complexity and product density from the perspective of capabilities.Based on the product space theory,this paper studies the effects on industrial upgrading brought by product complexity,product density and the structural features of their interaction.Using the panel data of SITC 4-digit codes of 794 kinds of products from 148 countries in the global commodity trade from 1962 to 2015,the paper carries out an empirical analysis through OLS and Probit regression and the results areas follows:(1)The more complicated the product is,the higher the difficulty coefficient of industrial upgrading becomes,and the lower the possibility of realizing industrial upgrading will be;however,the more complicated the product is,the higher the capability to retain the current advantage of the industry will be,which plays a significant role in preventing the industry from losing its advantages.(2)The higher the density of industrial products is,the smaller the jump range will be,which is conducive to the realization of industrial upgrading;at the same time,the higher the density of industrial products is,the lower the risk of product transformation will be,which can accelerate the pace of outdated industry exiting the market.(3)Product complexity and product density interact with each other,which has a significant positive impact on industrial upgrading and adjustment of economic structure.Therefore,industrial upgrading is a systematic program based on overall capability network,and by enhancing the product complexity and product density,emphasizes the interaction between the forward-looking top-level design and capability building,which can help a country to seek a better global position.Based on the perspective of product structure,this paper helps to promote the research of industrial upgrading from“quantitative”analysis of the total volume of the industry to the“qualitative”rule based on product pattern and multi-dimensional interaction.