反恐政策和三效应——基于巴基斯坦的实证分析

Anti-terrorism Policy and its Three effects

文献研究表明,反恐策略一般导致震慑、失能和报复三种效应。如果报复效应超过震慑和失能效应,恐袭事件的数量将会增加;如果震慑和失能效应占主导地位,反之亦然。巴基斯坦采取了三种镇压暴乱的措施,分别是:和平协议,单纯军事打击,以及"利剑行动"与国家行动计划。通过全球反恐数据库1974年1月至2015年12月期间的数据,依据负二项回归模型得出以下结论:和平协议对恐袭行为没有显著的影响;单纯军事打击增加了恐袭行为(报复效应占主导)。"利剑行动"行动与国家行动计划一起,产生了巨大的失能效应,恐袭事件显著减少。对9.11事件后的子样本进行研究,结论更加显著。

This paper empirically analyzes the effectiveness of various anti-terrorism policies in Pakistan.Literature research founds that the anti-terrorism strategy generally leads to the three effects:deterrence,incapacitation and vengeance.Attacks will increase if the vengeance exceeds the deterrence and incapacitation;if the deterrence and incapacitation are dominant,then vice versa.Pakistan has adopted three measures to suppress violence:peace agreements,military operations,and operation Zarb-e-Azba in combination with the National Action Plan.Based on the data from January 1974 to December 2015,the following conclusions drawn from Negative Binomial Regression model show that the peace agreement has no significant impact on violence,however military operations increase violence,in which vengeance effect dominant.Operation Zarb-e-Azba along with the National Action Plan has produced incapacitation effect strong enough to reduce terrorist attacks.This view is reinforced by the study of subsamples of post-9/11 period.