2016年中央台精细化指导预报在哈尔滨地区预报能力的检验分析

Test and analysis of prediction ability of central station fine guidance forecast in Harbin area

对2016年中央台指导预报24 h预报在哈尔滨13个站点的晴雨及温度预报进行检验分析发现:晴雨预报6月和9月份质量较差,其它月份较好,尤其是冬半年质量较好,地域分布上看西部质量略好于东部。温度预报总体最高气温预报质量好于最低气温预报,最高气温预报冬春、秋冬换季时质量较差,而最低气温预报呈现明显季节差异。

Test the rain and temperature prediction of central directive forecast 24 hour forecast for 13 station in Harbin in 2016. The results show that, the rain forecast of June and September is worse than other months, it is especially better in winter, For the geographical distribution, the quality of the west is better than the eastern part. Overall the quality of temperature forecast is better than that of minimum temperature, the highest temperature in winter and spring, autumn and winter seasonal forecast is quality poor, and the lowest temperature forecast showed obvious seasonal difference.