基于改进未确知测度模型的内河客船夜航风险评价

Evaluation of Navigation Risk for Inland-river Passenger Ships at Night-time Through Improved Uncertainty Measurement Model

为确保内河客船在夜间的安全营运,对客船夜航安全因素进行辨识,并将影响客船通航安全的因素分为人-船因素、自然环境因素、港口因素和管理因素4类一级指标,建立内河客船夜航风险评价指标体系。通过使用层次分析法(AHP)和熵权理论相结合的方法,降低各评价指标在权重分配中主、客观因素造成的影响。运用未确知度理论,处理客船夜航风险评价中评价因子的随机性和不确定性。以天津海河为例,运用改进的未确知度模型对客船夜航进行综合安全评价。实例验证结果表明,船员适任、船舶适航、背景光强和船公司安全管理以及船舶安全管理等5个评价指标权重比值较大,海河客船夜航风险等级属于"一般"风险且置信度不低于70%。

In order to guarantee navigation safety,and to identify safety factors of passenger ships in inland rivers at nighttime,the factors that affect navigation safety are classified into 4 categories,which are human and ship,natural environment,port,and management.An index system for risk evaluation of navigation for passenger ships at nighttime is established.Combining Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP)and entropy weight theory,influences of subjective and objective factors can be alleviated in weight distribution of each evaluation index.The unascertained theory is used to deal with randomness and uncertainty of evaluation indices in the model.Taking the Haihe River in Tianjin as a case study,an unascertained model is used to evaluate navigation risk of passenger ships at nighttime.The results show that weight ratios of 5 factors are larger than others,including crews,ship seaworthiness,intensity of background light,safety management of ships,and shipping companies.The risk level of navigation at nighttime in Haihe River is“normal”and its confidence is larger than 70%.