ORYZA2000水稻模型在四川盆地参数本地化及验证应用

Parameter Debug of Rice Growth model ORYZA2000 and Its Verification Application in Sichuan Basin

以杂交水稻中熟品种"辐优838"和中晚熟品种"川香9838"两年分期播种试验资料为基础,对ORYZA2000水稻模型发育速度、比叶面积、呼吸和分配系数等参数进行调试检验,实现模型参数的本地化,并利用四川盆区22个观测水稻的农业气象观测站2013-2015年的水稻观测资料对本地化模型参数进行验证,同时根据未来气候情景预测资料,模拟评价气候变化对四川盆区未来水稻的发育期和产量的影响.结果表明,1)ORYZA2000模型参数因品种不同而有所变化,本地化的模型参数对发育期和干物质的模拟效果达到较高的实用精度,发育期偏差值2d左右,叶面积指数、干物质和产量模拟值与观测值的相关系数在0.86以上;2)本地化的模型参数在四川盆地稻区具有较强的适应性,60多个样本模拟的齐穗期和成熟期偏差绝对值平均为4d左右,产量绝对值平均偏差为570kg/hm2;3)未来气候变化对四川盆地水稻生产有较大影响,不同区域影响不同.未来30年(2021-2050年)与前30年(1981-2010年)比较,盆周边缘山地稻区水稻产量有增加的趋势,一般增加在300kg/hm2左右,盆地中部稻区水稻产量有减少的趋势,一般减产幅度在150~450kg/hm2之间.

In order to achieve the localization of model parameters,based on the two years sowing experimental data of hybrid rice“Fuyou 838”and“Chuanxiangyou 9838”,the parameters of developmental speed,specific leaf area,respiration and partition coefficient of ORYZA2000 have been tested,and these parameters been verified by using the observational data of rice from 2013 to 2015.Then according to the future climate scenarios,the impacts of climate change on the future development and yield of rice have been simulated and evaluated in Sichuan Basin.The results show that,1)the parameters of the ORYZA2000 model changed with different varieties.The localized model parameters have high practical precision for the development and dry matter simulation.Simulated developmental deviation was about 2 days,and the correlation coefficient of simulated value and observation value is above 0.86 for leaf area index,dry matter and yield.2)the localized model parameters have strong adaptability in the rice area of Sichuan Basin.The absolute values of the total heading and maturity were about 4 days,and the average deviation of the absolute value of rice yield is 570 kg/hm 2.3)future climate change has a great impact on rice production in Sichuan Basin,and different regions have different effects.Compared with the previous 30 years(1981-2010),rice yield increased by about 300 kg/hm 2 in the edge of the basin and reduced about 150-450 kg/hm 2 in the middle area.