资本调整成本及其对资本错配的影响:基于生产率波动的分析

Capital Adjustment Cost and Its Impact on Capital Misallocation:Based on an Analysis of Productivity Volatility

提升资源配置效率,促进宏观全要素生产率增长,构成了新时代发展理念的重要内涵。这其中,企业资本的动态调整是一个关键环节。本文使用1998—2008年中国制造业企业数据,在估计企业资本调整成本的基础上,分别从静态和动态角度考察在生产率波动导致资本错配的过程中资本调整成本所承担的中介角色。对调整成本的估计结果表明,资本调整具有显著的非对称性,投资扩张引致的调整成本更大。异质性特征描述显示,民营企业、年轻企业和小规模企业的资本调整成本相对较高。静态分析表明,生产率波动与资本错配程度显著正相关,调整成本是生产率波动加剧资本错配的重要环节。在包含资本调整成本的动态模型中,模拟矩估计结果显示凸性调整模式占据主导地位,固定调整模式影响较弱但也不容忽视。反事实分析发现,调整成本确实是生产率波动—资本错配关系中的关键环节。与无调整成本影响的状态比较,纳入调整成本的模型对生产率波动—资本错配关系的平均解释能力提升28%;促使行业间技术趋同,减少生产率波动,将再提升上述模型解释能力10%。本文研究表明,通过改革减少调整成本和摩擦,实现资本在行业间充分流动,是促进资源优化配置进而提升经济发展的重要途径。

Firm-level capital dynamic adjustment plays a key role in promoting resource allocation efficiency and enhancing macro total factor productivity growth,which are important connotation of the new development concept in the new era.Using data of Chinese manufacturing enterprises from 1998 to 2008,this paper first estimates firm-level capital adjustment cost(CAC),then investigates the intermediary role of firms’CAC in shaping the relationship of productivity volatility and resource allocation from both static and dynamic perspectives.The estimation results reflect that CAC have a significant asymmetry and CAC caused by investment expansion is even greater.Heterogeneous characterizations show that the CAC of private firms,young firms and small-scale firms are relatively high.Static empirical results show that there is a significant positive correlation between productivity volatility and capital misallocation,and higher CAC is a possible channel through which higher productivity volatility increasing capital misallocation.In the dynamic model including CAC,simulated methods of moment estimation results show that the convex adjustment mode takes predominate position,while the fixed adjustment mode has weaker but still important effect.Counterfactual assessment shows the CAC is indeed the key link between the relationship of productivity volatility and capital misallocation.That is,the model with CAC explains such relationship by improving 28%on average when compared with the model without CAC.Meanwhile,if technology convergence across industries can be induced and this would reduce productivity volatility,the model’s explanatory power would add another 10%in this setting.This paper’s findings imply that reduce negative impacts from capital adjustment frictions through more reforms and to achieve the full flow of capital across industries are necessary ways to promote resources allocation efficiency and thus enhance economic development.