黑龙江省水稻三种害虫的地理分布预测

Prediction of Geographical Distribution of Three Rice Pests in Heilongjiang Province

近几年,在黑龙江省的主要稻区,二化螟、负泥虫和潜叶蝇大面积严重爆发,再加上农药的长期不合理使用,对生态环境造成了极大的破坏。因此,预测黑龙江省水稻田中这3种害虫的地理分布对于合理的使用农药预防虫害就显得至关重要。此次研究基于68种环境因子和收集到的3种害虫的实际分布地点,应用MaxEnt模型,并且结合ArcGis软件,定量预测了3种害虫在黑龙江省的地理分布,结果得到了ROC曲线分析法的验证。结果表明:哈尔滨市包括双城市、阿城市、五常市和尚志市是3种害虫共同的高风险区域,牡丹江市、鹤岗市、伊春市、双鸭山市和七台河市是低风险区域,在大兴安岭地区和绥芬河市等地几乎没有分布。研究结果为降低农药使用量,保护生态环境起到了积极的指导作用。

In recent years,Chilo suppressalis,Hydrellia griseola and Oulema oryzae Kumayama were seriously outbreak in the main rice areas of Heilogjiang province,and the long-term unreasonable use of pesticides caused great damage in the ecological environment.Therefore,it is important to predict the geographical distribution of three pests in rice fields for the rational use of pesticides to prevent pests and to protect the ecological environment.Based on the 68 environmental factors and the actual distribution of the three pests collected,using MaxEnt and ArcGis softwore,quantitative prediction of the geographical distribution of three pests in Heilongjiang province was carried out.The results were verified by ROC curve analysis.The results showed that Harbin city,including Shuangcheng city,Acheng city,Wuchang city and Shangzhi city,were a common high risk area for three pests.Mudanjiang city,Hegang city,Yichun city,Shuangyashan city and Qitaihe city were low risk areas,in the Daxinganling area and Suifenhe city and other places almost had no distribution.This conclusion would provide reference for reducing pesticide use and protecting the ecological environment.