当前矿业形势分析与展望

An Analysis of the Current Situation and Outlook of Mining Industry

过去两年受全球经济稳步复苏以及我国有关矿业政策的影响,全球矿业明显反弹,反映为采矿业固定资产投资额下降趋势减弱、大宗商品价格触底反弹趋势明显、矿业公司市值和利润明显增长、全球矿业投融资活动增强以及矿产勘查活动回暖。展望2018年,全球经济增长前景向好,我国仍将推动供给侧改革,但全球货币政策可能在美联储加息的带动下趋紧,加之商品价格已连涨两年,预测2018年将呈现高位震荡行情。经估算,全球矿业将于6～8年后实现全面复苏。

In the past two years,due to the steady recovery of global economy and the impact of China's relevant mining policies,the global mining industry has rebounded significantly.This is reflected in the decreasing trend of investment in mining fixed assets,the apparent rebound in commodity prices,the significant increase in market value and profits of mining companies,the global mining investment and financing activities have increased and mineral exploration activities have recovered.Looking into 2018,the prospects for global economic growth will be positive,and China will continue to promote supply-side reforms,but global monetary policy may be tightened by the Fed's rate hike.Considered commodity prices have risen for two consecutive years,it is predicted that high levels of fluctuations will emerge in 2018.It is also estimated that the global mining industry will achieve full recovery after 6-8 years.