上海市人口老龄化对居民储蓄影响的实证研究

An Empirical Study on the Impact of Population Aging on Residents' Savings in Shanghai

文章首先分析了上海市的人口结构和储蓄现状,然后综合分析了人口老龄化影响储蓄的机制,最后利用时间序列模型,通过选取1997-2015年间上海市老年抚养比、家庭成员数、人均居民可支配收入、人均储蓄余额等数据,实证检验人口老龄化对居民储蓄水平的影响情况。研究表明:上海市作为中国老龄化最严重的地区,在平均寿命延长和人口出生率不能明显升高的情况下,老龄化程度的加深会引起储蓄增加,从而导致居民消费动力不足,一定程度上会影响上海市的经济发展,也不利于上海市高效地解决"城市病"问题。

This paper analyzes the population structure and savings status of Shanghai,then analyzes the mechanism of population aging on savings,and finally uses the time series model.By selecting the old-age dependency ratio,the number of family members and the disposable income per capita,the per capita savings balance and other data in Shanghai from1997 to 2015,the paper makes an empirical analysis on the impact of the population aging on the residents savings level.The study shows that Shanghai,as the most aging area in China,when the average life expectancy is prolonged and the birth rate is not significantly improved,the deepening of aging will cause savings increase,which results in insufficient consumption power of residents.To a certain extent,it will affect the economic development of Shanghai,and is also not conducive to Shanghai effectively solving the“urban disease”problem.