“统计外收入”及其对居民收入与经济增长同步性的影响——两种统计口径的对比分析

“Underreported Income” and Its Impact on the Simultaneity of the Growth of Residents' Income and the Economy:A Comparative Analysis of Two Types of Statistics

"统计外收入"是影响居民收入与经济增长同步性的重要因素。本文在比较国家统计局住户调查数据和资金流量表数据的基础上,估算了近年来"统计外收入"的规模和结构,分析了影响居民收入与经济增长同步性的因素。研究发现,基于住户调查数据的城乡居民收入存在被低估情况,这些被低估的收入我们称之为"统计外收入"。根据资金流量表推算,1992年以来,居民人均可支配收入遗漏率在18%至27%之间波动。2012年以来,遗漏率逐渐下降,2014年为20.6%。工资性收入和转移性收入遗漏率低,经营性收入和财产性收入遗漏率高。遗漏率既受统计制度改革的影响,也受经济形势的影响。大量"统计外收入"的存在意味着中国居民收入水平实际上更高,居民收入与经济增长的同步性会更好,但也意味着实现2020年城乡居民人均收入比2010年翻一番的目标难度更大。总的来看,未来一段时期,居民收入增长将会保持与经济增长大致同步态势。

“Underreported Income”is a key factor that impacts the simultaneity of the growth of residents income and the economy.Based on a comparative analysis of the Household Survey of the National Bureau of Statistics of China and Capital Flow Statement,this study estimates the scope and composition of“Underreported Income”and analyzes factors that impact the simultaneous growth of residents income and the economy.This study finds that the income data gained from the Household Survey is underestimated,which we call“Underreported Income”.Estimated from the Capital Flow Statement,since 1992 the omission rate of residents disposable income per capita has fluctuated between 18 percent and 27 percent.Since 2012,the omission rate has decreased gradually,dropping to 20.6 percent in 2014.The omission rate of wage and transfer income is relatively low,whereas that of operating income and property income is high.The omission rate is impacted by both the institutional and regime reform of the statistics sector and the overall macro-economic trend.The existence of enormous“Underreported Income”implies that Chinese residents real income is higher and the simultaneity of the growth of residents income and economic growth is better than reported.However,it also implies that it is difficult to achieve the goal of doubling residents disposable income per capita in the year of 2020,compared to 2010.Overall,the growth of residents income and the economy will keep a roughly simultaneous pace.