中国人均水足迹驱动效应分解与空间聚类分析

Driving Effect Decomposition and Spatial Clustering Analysis of Per Capita Water Footprint in China

采用2000—2014年31个省份(除港澳台)的面板数据,利用IPAT模型对足迹强度、资本产出、资本深化和经济活度4个因素对人均水足迹数量的影响进行分解、分析,并引入LMDI分解模型进一步定量计算各因素的影响程度,利用ISODATA模型对各省份人均水足迹驱动因素进行空间聚类分析。得出主要结论如下:(1)我国人均水足迹数量变动是由足迹强度、资本产出、资本深化和经济活度4个因素共同作用的结果,在研究期间内,足迹强度对于人均水足迹数量变动一直呈现为稳定的减量作用,资本深化对于人均水足迹数量的变动一直呈现为稳定的增量效应;(2)从时间序列来看,资本深化效应对人均水足迹数量的变动起决定性作用,其研究期间的变异系数最低,为0.246 0,表现最为稳定,多年平均效应值为0.346亿m^3/万人;(3)各驱动效应在空间分布上有差异,其分布与地区经济发展水平和技术水平有关。

The panel data of 31 provinces(excluding Hong Kong,Macao and Taiwan)from 2000 to 2014 were used in this paper.The influences of four factors including footprint intensity,capital output,capital deepening and economic activity on water footprint per capita number were decomposed and analyzed by using the IPAT model.Then the LMDI decomposition model was introduced for further quantitative calculation of the impact of each factor,and the ISODATA model was used to analyze the spatial clustering of the driving factors of the water footprint per capita in the provinces.The main conclusions are as follows:①the amount of China's per capita water footprint changes by the footprint intensity,capital output,capital deepening and economic activity of the four factors,and during the study period,there has been steady reduction effect of the footprint intensity on the changes of water footprint per capita in the quantity,while there has been the steady incremental effect of capital deepening on it;②from the view of time series,the capital deepening effect plays a decisive role in the changes of water footprint per capita in the quantity,and during the study period,the coefficient of variation for the capital deepening effect is 0.246 0,the lowest,as well as it has the most stable performance,the annual average effect value is 0.346×10 8 m 3/10 000 people;③the spatial distribution of each driving effect is different,and its distribution is related to the level of regional economic development and technology.