虚拟水流动特征及其影响因素研究——以唐山市为例

Study on Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Virtual Water Flow:a Case Study of Tangshan City

虚拟水隐含于产品中在不同区域之间及区域内部不同部门之间流动,作为社会水循环的重要环节受到越来越多的关注。为分析虚拟水的流动特征及影响因素,以唐山市为例,基于水资源投入产出表、用水数据、社会经济数据进行探讨,结果表明:(1)2002、2005、2007、2010年,农业、工业、建筑业、第三产业4个产业部门中,农业向其他3个部门输出虚拟水,且向工业部门输出的比例最大,其他3个部门均为虚拟水净输入部门。(2)唐山市为虚拟水净输出区域,净流出部门包括农业、工业,净流入部门包括建筑业和第三产业。(3)农业为影响唐山市内部农业与工业部门间虚拟水流动的首要因子,关联度由大到小依次为粮食作物产量比重、蔬菜瓜类产量比重、耕地面积、万元农业GDP用水量、农业机械总动力、农业GDP、食品制造及烟草加工业GDP、金属品制造业GDP;影响唐山市同外部农业虚拟水的主要因素依次为单位面积耕地用水量、实际耕地面积、化肥使用量、城镇化率、水资源总量、人均GDP、京唐港货物吐出量。本文研究结果可为区域制定缓解水资源短缺措施提供一定的参考。

Virtual water flow,implying in products among different sectors in the region internally and externally,receives more and more attentionas an important link of social water cycle.For analyzing characteristics and influencing factors of virtual water flow,Tangshan city as an example,input-output tables based on water resources,water consumption data and socioeconomic data are discussed in this paper.The results show that:①during 2002,2005,2007 and 2010,among agriculture,industry,construction and tertiary industry,agriculture outputs virtual water to the others,and the ration to industry is the largest,while the other three are net input sectors;②Tangshan city is in the net input area,the net output sectors are agriculture and industry,and the net input ones are construction and tertiary industry;③main driving factors on virtual water flow between agriculture and industry in Tangshan are agricultural elements and the relation degree ranks as follows:proportion of grain crops yield,the proportion of vegetable melon production,cultivated land area,agricultural water consumption in ten thousand yuan,total power of agricultural machinery,agricultural GDP,food manufacturing and tobacco industrial GDP,and metal manufacturing industrial GDP.The impacting factors on external agricultural virtual water successively include irrigation water of arable land per unit area,actual cultivated land area,usage amount of chemical fertilizer,urbanization rate,total amount of water resources,per capita GDP and cargo throughput of Jintang Port.This paper will provide some references to take measures to alleviates water resources shortages.