区域水资源承载力评价的风险矩阵方法

Risk Matrix Method for Evaluating Regional Water Resources Carrying Capacity

为客观合理地评价水资源承载力和综合考虑各要素的评价结果,从承载支撑力和承载压力两方面出发,选取水量、水质要素承载支撑力和压力评价的实物量指标,建立了水资源承载力评价指标体系,构建了区域水资源承载力评价的风险矩阵方法(RMM-WCC),采用短板法进行单要素水资源承载力评价,运用风险矩阵方法对单要素评价结果进行综合,最后得到水资源承载力评价的综合评价结果。将RMM-WCC应用于安徽省淮河流域的水资源承载力评价中,得到该区域的水资源承载状态,对于超载的状态指出了超载原因,并给出了相关的措施建议。该评价结果可为安徽省淮河流域水资源优化配置提供参考,同时,RMMWCC在水土资源、生态环境和海洋资源等承载力综合评价中具有广泛的应用前景。

In order to objectively and rationally evaluate the carrying capacity of water resources and comprehensively consider the evaluation results of each factor,physical quantity indexes of two factors including water quantity and quality were considered to construct the evaluating index system.The indexes were selected from two aspects of carrying ability and carrying pressure.The carrying status of single factor was obtained by short board method.Comprehensive carrying status of water resources can be obtained by risk matrix method.Then,a risk matrix method for evaluating regional water resources carrying capacity,RMM-WCC for short,was put forward.This paper applied RMM-WCC in Huaihe River Basin of Anhui Province to evaluate the carrying status of water resources.The causes of overloading in overload area and the measures and suggestions were proposed.The evaluation results can provide a reference for the optimal allocation of water resources in Huaihe River Basin of Anhui Province.RMM-WCC has a wide application prospect in the carrying capacity evaluation of water and soil resources,ecological environment and marine resources.