区域旱灾风险管理中的灰色局势群决策方法

Grey Situation Group Decision-Making Method in Regional Drought Risk Management

为提高区域旱灾风险管理中决策信息的准确性和合理性,提出了一种基于灰色不确定语言变量的局势群决策方法,并将其应用到河南省农业旱灾风险管理中。首先,给出灰色不确定语言变量的定义和运算规则;然后综合考虑决策群体一致性、语言信息灰度和专家主观权重提出专家综合权重的确定方法,并给出基于局势偏差的目标权重确定方法;最后通过求解决策专家评价下的综合效果样本值矩阵,确定最优灰色局势。实例分析表明了所提出方法的有效性,并为区域农业旱灾风险管理提供参考。

A method based on grey uncertain linguistic variables,which is applied to Henan agriculture drought risk management,is proposed to solve the situation group decision-making problems and improve the veracity and rationality of regional drought risk management.Firstly,the definition and operation rules of grey uncertain linguistic variables are given.Then,the determination method of comprehensive weight of the experts is put forward by considering the consistency of the decision-making group,the linguistic information degree of greyness and the subjective weight of the experts.Apart from this,the determination method of target weight based on the situation deviation is given.Finally,the optimal grey situation is determined by solving the comprehensive effect sample matrix based on the decision expert evaluation.An example is given to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method and provide references for regional agriculture drought risk management.