女性教育结构与终身生育率——基于率分解法的结构效应分析

Women's Educational Structure and Completed Fertility Rate:A Structural Effect Research Based on the Decomposition Analysis

国内关于教育与生育水平的研究多以微观个体为分析单位,宏观结构层面的分析较少。以2005年1%人口抽样调查数据中1941年至1964年的女性出生队列为研究对象,采用标准化和率分解的方法,讨论女性受教育程度的宏观结构变化在我国终身生育率下降过程中的效应。结果显示,教育结构在终身生育率下降过程中的效应逐渐增强并存在显著的户籍差异。当各教育程度对应的生育水平降至较低水平且趋于稳定后,结构效应便会凸显;结构内部的异质性越大,结构效应越明显,由此表明宏观结构变化同样是我国生育水平下降的重要因素。这些发现对于全面理解女性个体发展及生育率下降过程和原因有着重要意义。

Most articles about the education and fertility are micro-level studiesare very few.Based on the 1%Population Survey in 2005,the effects of educational structure on the completed fertility rate of 1941-1964 birth cohort are estimated by applying decomposition direct standardization.The results show^that the effect of educational structure on fertility is growing and this effect also has differences in registration.When the fertility rate of every educational decreases to a lower level and become stable,the structure effect will grow.structure causes stronger structural effects.Therefore,macro structure changes also have on the decline of Chinese fertility and we could better understand the development demographic transformation from these findings.