中国北方海域冰区航行船舶风险评估预警系统设计与开发

Risk Evaluation and Early Warning System for Ice Navigating Vessels in Northern Sea Areas of China

在深入调查研究海事主管部门和港航企业对海冰预警产品需求的基础上,根据自然灾害风险模糊综合评价理论和技术,建立可用于中国北方海域冰区航行船舶的风险预评估模型。使用ENVI软件对NASA的海冰卫星遥感实况和国家海洋局发布的海冰预报信息进行再处理,提取有关海冰密集度和厚度信息作为风险评估的背景场,进而提出冰区航行船舶风险状况动态评估预警系统的设计方案。仿真实例分析结果表明,该系统可动态、直观、有效地给出我国北方海域冰区航行船舶未来的风险状况,可作为保障船舶冰区航行安全的辅助决策产品,供海事主管部门、航运企业和港口生产调度部门使用。

Based on the thorough investigation and research on the needs of maritime safety authorities and port&shipping companies for aids of ice navigation warning,a risk pre-evaluation model which can be used for ice navigating vessels in northern sea areas of China is proposed according to the theory and technique of fuzzy comprehensive risk assessment of natural disaster.Using ENVI software to reprocess satellite remote sensing ice data from NASA and sea ice forecasting information issued by NMEFC of China as necessary background field for risk evaluation,a dynamic risk pre-evaluation and warning system is developed.Simulation analysis shows that this system can dynamically,intuitively and effectively provide the risk degrees for sailing vessels in northern sea areas of China for the coming 72 hours.The system can be used as a kind of aids for decision-making to guarantee safety navigation in ice sea areas for maritime safety authorities,shipping companies and port control centers.