贵州省出生性别比空间计量分析

Spatial econometric analysis of sex ratio at birth in Guizhou

近年来,贵州省人口出生性别比失衡问题越发严重,但是目前尚无行之有效的措施予以应对。本文截取贵州省第六次人口普查相关数据,首先运用全域空间自相关分析和局域空间自相关分析了解了贵州省人口出生性别比在地理空间上的分布特征,接着通过对OLS回归模型、空间滞后模型、空间误差模型和空间杜宾模型的对比分析,从而选择了空间滞后模型来分析影响贵州省人口出生性别比的因素。研究结果表明:(贵州省人口出生性别比存在空间差异;人口出生性别比存在集聚现象;人口出生性别比偏高区域或偏低区域对周围相邻区域存在辐射带动作用。)影响贵州省人口出生性别比的因素中,生育政策、医疗技术发展水平和经济发展水平等较为显著。本文试图通过对贵州省人口"六普"数据的分析,了解贵州省88个县(市、区)人口出生性别比分布特征,找出影响贵州省人口出生性别比的因素,力图为调控人口出生性别比失衡问题找到突破口,从而为各级政府机构制定相关人口政策提供理论依据。

In recent years,the imbalance of sex ratio at birtli has become more and more there is no effective measure to deal with it.This thesis takes Guizhou Province sixth census data,the first use of global spatial autocorrelation analysis and local spatial autocorrelation analysis to understand the Guizhiou province spatial distribution characteristics on sex ratio at birth in the ground,then through the analysis spatial lag model and spatial error model and a spatial Durbin model,thus the choice of space factors of birth sex ratio in Guizhou provincc population lag model.The results show that:Guizhou provincc ratio at birthi has spatial diferences;the sex ratio at birthi has agglomeration;high sex ratio at birthi or low area of surrounding area adjacent areas leading role.Among the factors that afect thie sex ratio at birthi in Guizhiou,,the level of medical technolog development and the level of economic development are attempts to analyze the Guizhou provincc population in the six census data,88 counties in Guizhou~)than the distribution of gender at birth,and find out the influencc factors of birth sex ratio of Province,trying to find a breakthrough for the regulation than the imbalance of birth gender,so as to provide a basis for government agencies at all levels to develop relevant population policies.