非线性货币政策操作下的政策效果模拟

Nonlinear Effect of Monetary Policy under the Operation of Policy Simulation

文章借鉴平滑转移回归的非线性分析方法,将简单的价格型和数量型货币政策规则拓展到Logistic平滑转换形式的非线性货币政策,并将其纳入具有微观基础的新凯恩斯DSGE模型,引入技术冲击、偏好冲击等6种外生冲击,利用中国1996年第一季度至2016年第二季度的数据通过贝叶斯估计方法,测定了货币政策的非线性特征下价格型和数量型规则对我国主要经济变量波动的影响。模拟结果显示:非线性的价格型货币政策规则调控更注重对通胀的反应,而且反应速度较快,能有效地"控通胀";非线性的数量型货币政策规则调控更注重对产出的反应,但反应速度较慢,在调控的过程中能有效地"保增长"。

By referring to the nonlinear analytical method of Smooth Transition Regression,this paper expands the price-based and quantity-based monetary policy rules to the monetary policy rules of smooth transition with the microeconomic foundation.It introduces six exogenous shocks.It measures the nonlinear characteristics of the price-based or quantity-based monetary policy rules by Bayesian estimation method with the data from the first quarter of 1996 to the second quarter of 2016.The simulation results show that:the nonlinear price-based monetary control policy focuses more on the response of inflation,and responds faster to control the inflation effectively;but the nonlinear quantity-based monetary control policy focuses more on the response of output,it responds more slowly and can ensure the growth effectively in the process of regulation.