基于AHP-PCA模型的安宁市森林火灾社会脆弱性评价

Risk Assessment on Social Vulnerability of Forest Fire in Anning Based on AHP-PCA

基于社会经济角度构建安宁市森林火环境灾害社会脆弱性评价指标体系,用主成分分析法(PCA)提取暴露性因子中重叠指标,用层次分析法(AHP)确定因子权重,选取人口指标、经济指标、森林覆盖指标、地方财政收入及老幼人口比例5个权重较大因子为脆弱度计算指标。结果表明:2001—2011年安宁市森林火环境社会脆弱度在0.10~0.63波动,极值出现在2009年,森林火环境系统脆弱性指数明显上升,由轻度脆弱演化为强度脆弱;社会脆弱性指标值与实际火灾发生次数在2009年前呈正相关,在2009年后呈负相关。社会脆弱性研究可以为森林火险预测预报提供一定的参考依据。

Based on socio-economic angle,social vulnerability evaluation index system of anning forest fire environment disaster was constructed.Overlapping indicators of exposure factor were extracted by principal component analysis(PCA).The weight of factors were determined by analytic hierarchy process(AHP)and the top 5 weight of the larger factor as population indicators,economic indicators,forest coverage indicators,local fiscal revenue and the proportion of young and old population were selected for the calculation of vulnerability indicators.The results showed that from 2001 to 2011,the social vulnerability of forest fire environment in Anning City fluctuated from 0.10 to 0.63.The extreme value appeared in 2009.The vulnerability index of Anning forest fire environment system increased markedly and the degree of vulnerability changed from light fragility to strength.The social vulnerability index was positively correlated with the actual number of fires before 2009 and negative correlated after 2009.Social vulnerability research can provide some reference for fire forecast.