南海风浪环境统计特性分析方法研究

Study on Analytic Method of the Statistic Characteristic for the Wind Seas at the South China Sea

利用WRF气象模式对南海风场进行了数值后报,并以此为驱动场,采用SWAN海浪模式对南海海浪进行了数值模拟研究,得到连续20年的南海风浪资料。通过与观测资料进行对比验证,发现模拟数据与实测数据匹配较好。在此基础上,利用风浪后报数据分析了南海风浪长期统计特征。通过不同分布模型统计结果对比分析,选取误差最小的P-Ⅲ型方法对南海风浪极值条件进行了不同重现期推算,为南海海洋工程设计提供基础数据和科学支持。

The numerical hindcasting of wind field at the South China Sea was carried out by weather analysis model WRF,and which was utilized as driving filed to develop the research for ocean wave at the South China Sea with the ocean wave model SWAN to obtain the wind-wave data of the South China Sea at past 20 years.The comparison with observation date showed that the matching between the both were better.Based on that,the long term statistic characteristic of the South China Sea was studied.By the comparison analysis between different distribution models,P-Ⅲmodel with the minimum deviation was adopted to conclude the extreme value of the wind seas at the South China Sea in different reappearing periods,which supply important basic data and scientific support for the design of ocean engineering at the South China Sea.