升金湖湿地土地利用变化及其驱动力

Land use change and its driving forces in Shengjin Lake Wetland

基于1986—2015年8期升金湖湿地遥感影像,应用地理信息技术对升金湖湿地土地利用变化过程进行分析,并结合数理统计方法对土地利用变化的驱动因子进行研究.结果表明:1986—2015年,草地、水田、滩涂及其他用地的面积总体呈增长趋势,林地、旱地、水域及芦苇沼泽的面积总体呈减小趋势;土地利用程度综合指数略有波动,但总体处于中等水平,表明土地利用处于发展时期;研究区土地利用变化的主要驱动因子有地形地貌、气候、人口数量变化、社会经济发展以及政策因素等,并且每种土地类型面积变化都有其主导驱动因子.总体来看,自然因素提供了土地利用变化的内在动力,但人口数量则是土地利用变化的根本因素.

Based on remote sensing images of Shengjin Lake wetland from 1986 to 2015,land use change process of Shengjin Lake wetland was analyzed by using geographic information technology. Meanwhile,driving factors of land use change were analyzed by using mathematical statistics method. The results showed that areas of grassland,paddy field,mud flat and other land types increased from 1986 to 2015,while areas of forest land,dry land,waters and reed marsh dropped. Land use composite index fluctuated slightly but was at a moderate level overall,indicating land use was in the period of development. The main driving forces of land use change in the study area included terrain topography,climate,population change,socio-economic development and policy factors,and each land use type had its own dominant driving factor. And changes on any type of land use were attributed to multiple driving factors instead of a single one. To summarize,natural factor provides the intrinsic motivation for land use change,but population is the fundamental factor.