人口结构、教育投入与经济增长——基于省级动态面板数据的实证检验

Population Structure,Education Investment and Economic Growth——An Empirical study Based on Provincial Dynamic Panel Data

经济新常态的到来,挖掘二次人口红利推动经济增长成为共识。本文采用全国30个省市自治区10年间的面板数据,运用PVECM模型探讨了人口结构、教育投入与经济增长的交互作用。发现短期内,性别比失衡、总抚养比的上升不利于经济增长,就业结构的改善、教育投入的增加有利于经济增长,而经济增长可以促进就业结构的优化,却不能显著改善教育投入、总抚养比;另外男女比例失衡、总抚养比上升将刺激教育投入增加,而城镇化的发展有可能减少教育投入。在长期内,性别比例失衡、城镇化率上升不利于经济增长,总抚养比上升对经济增长的阻碍作用逐渐降低,而就业结构对改善经济增长的促进作用逐渐降低且趋于平稳,教育投入增加会刺激经济长期增长;反之,经济增长能显著改善教育投入、有利于优化性别比失衡,但经济增长对就业结构无显著影响,且会导致总抚养比恶化;另外,男女比例失衡、城镇化率上升将导致教育投入减少,而抚养比上升对教育投入无显著性影响。从而结合供给侧结构改革提出主要应从质和量两方面入手挖掘二次人口红利,并进行相应的产业结构调整,再辅助以相应的政策调整来共同推动经济、社会协调健康发展。

As we entered the new era of China's New Normal,at this moment,it has become a common view to impulse economic growth by exploring the second demographic dividend.This paper tries to discuss the interaction among the population structure,education investment and economic development by PVECM model with the panel data of 30 providences in China in a period of 10 years.This paper finds that,in a short term,the economic development will be mainly impacted by education investment and the urban-rural structure;and in a long term,the education investment will have a more significant impact to the economic development.Based on the previous finding,this paper,combining with structural reform of the supply front,further proposes a second exploration of demographic dividend from the perspectives of quality and quantity.To fulfill this purpose,we can,on one hand,further regulate population policy and boost birthrate to replenish demographic dividend;on the other hand,we can add education investment and reform education investment structure to speed up human resource accumulation.At the same time,we should adjust the urbanization strategy so as to promote urbanization level and impulse the sound and health development of economics.