天然异龄林林木资产择伐收益法评估

Tree assets evaluation of natural uneven-aged stand by selective cutting income method

以马尾松异龄林为研究对象,阐述了异龄林林木资产评估择伐收益法的基本原理,并针对择伐收益法存在的关键技术瓶颈,采用哑变量方法建立了以立地质量等级为哑变量、以蓄积量和间隔期为辅助变量的蓄积生长率模型,利用204块固定样地的多次观测数据和采用蚁群算法求解模型参数。通过32块样地观测数据进行适用性检验,表明模型平均相对误差绝对值为8.08%,平均系统误差为2.17%;在此基础上,结合择伐收益法,探讨了马尾松异龄林林木资产的评估技术,分析了不同择伐强度和利率对资产评估值的影响,指出了天然马尾松择伐强度在30%~40%之间更合理,以及在天然异龄林林木资产评估实践中应注意的技术要点和可能存在的问题,以期为完善异龄林林木资产评估技术提供参考依据。

Taking uneven-aged stand of Pinus massoniana as the research object,the paper expounded the basic principle of selective cutting income method for tree assets in different age forests.As the key technical bottlenecks of selective cutting income method,the paper used dummy variable method to establish a storage growth rate model with the site quality grade as dummy variable,the volume and interval as the instrumental variable,and used 204 pieces fixed plots of multiple observation data and the ant colony algorithm to solve the model parameters.The applicability test was carried out through 32 pieces plots which showed that the absolute relative error of the model was 8.08%and the average system error was 2.17%.Based on the model combining with selective cutting income method,the paper discussed assets evaluation technology of the uneven-aged stand of P.massoniana forest,analyzed the effects of different cutting intensity and the interest rate of on the assets valuation,pointed out the selective cutting intensity of natural P.massoniana was more reasonable between 30%-40%,and the key technical points and possible problems that should be paid attention to,in order to provide references for improving the technology of uneven-aged stand assets evaluation.