2017年生猪生产形势及2018年走势分析

The production situation of pig in 2017 and the trend in 2018

2017年上半年生猪价格高位回落,下半年价格企稳窄幅震荡,生猪价格总体在成本线之上,全年养殖仍保持较好收益。是继2016年"金猪年"之后,难得的"银猪年"。上半年价格持续下跌主要因为供应增加、需求减少,导致阶段性供大于求。而由于下半年需求的恢复,供大于求有所缓解,供应总体保持平衡偏紧,价格稳中有升。由于目前猪价总体处于猪周期的下行通道,2018年价格不会好于2017年。

The high price of live pigs fell back in the first half of the year 2017.The price of live pigs stabilized in a narrow range in the second half of the year,and it was generally above the cost line,which resulted in the profids was good for the whole year.It was rare“Silver pig year”after the“Golden pig year”.The price of the first half of the year continued to fall mainly because of the increase in supply and the decrease in demand,which led to a phased oversupply exceeding demand.However,due to the recovery of demand in the second half of the year,the oversupply eased somewhat,and the overall balance of supply remained tight.Prices have risen steadily.As pig prices are currently on the downside of the pig cycle,prices on 2018 will not be better than 2017.