生态文明指导下的福建经济与资源环境关系研究

Study on the Relationship Between Economy、 Resources and Environment in Fujian Under the Guidance of Ecological Civilization

通过脱钩及环境库兹涅茨理论从短期、长期两个时间维度揭示作为生态文明试验区的福建省经济、资源与环境之间的内在联系,利用LMDI分解法从人口规模、经济发展、资源消耗/环境污染强度三个方面对福建资源环境压迫进行因素分析。研究发现:福建生物资源利用呈现弱脱钩和扩张负脱钩交替出现,水消耗长期处于弱脱钩,化石能源消耗趋向弱脱钩,工业废水、废气排放有强脱钩趋势,烟粉尘脱钩趋势不明显,固体废弃物排放近年仍以增长连结和扩张负脱钩为主;生物资源EKC拐点出现在2014年,水资源和化石能源仍处于掠夺阶段,废水、废气、烟粉尘、固废EKC拐点分别出现于2009年、2006年、2005年、2013年,仍需警惕拐点后的反弹;人口规模对资源环境产生弱正向驱动效应,经济发展仍是资源环境压迫的主要动因,资源消耗/环境污染强度作为抵消项,其反向拉动作用大于人口规模因素。

To reveal the internal relations of economy、resources and environment of Fujian which as ecological civilization pilot area by the theory of decoupling and EKC in the short-term and long-term two time dimension,and use the LMDI decomposition method for factor analysis of resource environment pressure from the population scale,economic development,resource consumption/environmental pollution intensity.The study found that consumption of biological resources were alternately weak decoupling and expansion of the negative decoupling,water consumption appeared weak decoupling in the long term,fuel consumption tended to weak decoupling,the emission of industrial waste water and waste gas tended to strong decoupling,the decoupling trend of industrial smoke dust is not obvious,the discharge of industrial solid waste dominated by growth link and the expansion of the negative decoupling in recent years;The EKC inflection point of biological resources appeared in 2014,water、fuel were still in the stage of plunder,and the EKC inflection point of waste water,waste gas,smoke and dust and waste appeared in 2009,2006,2005,2013,but still need to guard against the bottom rebound after the inflection point.Population size had a weak positive drive effect,the rapid economic growth was still the main cause of the oppression of resources and environment,resource consumption/environmental pollution intensity as an offset,the reverse pull effect was greater than the population size factor.