福建省农业贷款深化与农民收入关系研究

Empirical Analysis on the Impacts of the Deepening of Agricultural Loans on Farmers' Income of Fujian Province

采用1990-2015年福建省农民人均纯收入、农业贷款深化、农林牧渔总产值数据,通过协整检验、格兰杰因果关系检验、向量自回归模型、脉冲响应和方差分析,发现农民收入、农业贷款深化和农林牧渔总产值之间存在长期的协整关系,且三变量两两之间均存在双向的格兰杰因果关系。农业贷款深化和农林牧渔总产值均对农民收入具有促进效应,农业贷款深化对农民收入的影响更大。

Based on the data(1990-2015)of per capita net income of farmers,the deepening of agricultural loans,and GDP of Farming,Forestry,Animal Husbandry and Fishery,the paper used Co-integration Test,Granger Causality Test,VAR Model,Impulse Response,and Variance Analysis to explore the relationship among the above 3 variables.There exists a long-term equilibrium relationship among per capita net income of farmers,the deepening of agricultural loans,and GDP of Farming,Forestry,Animal Husbandry and Fishery with a two-way Granger Causality relationship between every two variables.The deepening of agricultural loans and GDP of Farming,Forestry,Animal Husbandry and Fishery have positive impacts on per capita net income of farmers and the deepen of agricultural loans has greater impacts.