基于主成分分析法的中国进口贸易影响因素研究

The Research on the Influencing Factors of China's Import Trade Based on Principal Component Analysis

分析影响进口贸易的各种因素,采用主成分分析方法建立综合分析进口贸易影响因素的数量模型.研究发现:我国进口贸易主要受经济基本面因子、价格因子、收入消费因子和投资储蓄因子这四大主成分影响;我国的进口贸易与价格因子呈负相关关系,与经济基本面因子、收入消费因子和投资储蓄因子这三个主成分呈正相关关系.我国在制定促进进口贸易的外贸战略和政策时,需要在经济层面兼顾以下三点:一是在新发展理念指导下促进整体经济的又好又快发展,二是稳定价格体系,三是重视投资和储蓄的积累.

This paper analyzes the factors influencing the import trade from the theoretical and the empirical point of view,and uses the principal component analysis method to establish a quantitative model to analyze the influencing factors of import trade.The study shows that China's import trade is mainly affected by the economic fundamentals,price factors,income consumption factors and investment savings factors.The import trade is negatively correlated with the price factor,and the economic fundamentals,income Consumption factor and investment savings factor are the three principal components are positively correlated.Based on the conclusion of this paper,China's foreign trade strategy and policy in promoting import trade need to take into account the following three points at the economic level:to promote the sound and rapid development of the whole economy under the guidance of the new development concept;stabilizing the price system;attention to the accumulation of investment and savings.