“21世纪海上丝绸之路”背景下中泰水产品贸易互通研究——基于影响因素和发展潜力的实证分析

Research on trade development of aquatic products between China and Thailand upon Maritime Silk Road in 21^(st)century

提升中泰水产品贸易水平,能有效带动中国与东盟地区其他国家的经贸合作,有力推动"21世纪海上丝绸之路"建设。本文运用贸易指数和随机前沿引力模型,系统分析了中泰水产品贸易发展状况,结果表明:中泰水产品双边贸易存在较强互补性且有不断增强趋势,在国际水产品市场表现为竞争关系;经济规模、人口和地理距离等传统因素对中泰双边贸易和中国对泰国出口贸易的影响效应显著,非效率影响因素中自由贸易协定、对外开放度和经济自由度对双边贸易促进作用较大,但对出口贸易影响效应较弱;自由贸易区成立以来,双边和中国对泰国出口贸易开发力度很大,贸易效率较高,现处于贸易潜力较小阶段。为推动中泰水产品贸易发展,应从贸易开放程度、互补性产品结构和贸易便利化水平等挖掘贸易潜力。

Speeding up the aquatic products trade cooperation between China and Thailand is an important part ingravity model to make a systematic analysis on aquatic products trade between China and Thailand.There are some Research conclusions here.Bilateraltrade in aquatic products are complementary which also presents a growing trend.At the same time,it presents a competitive performance in the world aquatic products market.The traditional factors such as economic size,population and geographical distance have a significant effect on bilateral trade and China’s export trade with Thailand.Meanwhile,among the nonefficiency factors,the free trade agreement,foreign trade openness of the trading nation and the economic freedom simultaneously play an important role in promoting the bilateral trade,but the impact on export trade is weak.Since the establishment of the free trade zone,bilateral and export trade potentials have been greatly developed.The trade efficiency has been high.It is in a small trade potential stage at this time.To promote the development of aquatic products trade,the level of trade openness,trade structure and trade facilitation should be optimized.